Testing for Structural Changes in Exchange Rates Dependence beyond Linear Correlation
نویسندگان
چکیده
In this paper we test for structural changes in the conditional dependence of twodimensional foreign exchange data. We show that by modeling the conditional dependence structure using copulae we can detect changes in the dependence beyond linear correlation like changes in the tail of the joint distribution. This methodology is relevant for estimating risk management measures as portfolio Value-at-Risk, pricing multi-name financial instruments and portfolio asset allocation. Our results include evidence of the existence of changes in the correlation as well as in the fatness of the tail of the dependence between Deutsche Mark and Japanese Yen.
منابع مشابه
Dependence of Default Probability and Recovery Rate in Structural Credit Risk Models: Empirical Evidence from Greece
The main idea of this paper is to study the dependence between the probability of default and the recovery rate on credit portfolio and to seek empirically this relationship. We examine the dependence between PD and RR by theoretical approach. For the empirically methodology, we use the bootstrapped quantile regression and the simultaneous quantile regression. These methods allow to determinate...
متن کاملDeveloping Non-linear Dynamic Model to Estimate Value at Risk, Considering the Effects of Asymmetric News: Evidence from Tehran Stock Exchange
Empirical studies show that there is stronger dependency between large losses than large profit in financial market, which undermine the performance of using symmetric distribution for modeling these asymmetric. That is why the assuming normal joint distribution of returns is not suitable because of considering the linier dependence, and can be lead to inappropriate estimate of VaR. Copula theo...
متن کاملMonitoring Structural Change in Variance , withan
In this paper we propose a sequential testing approach for a structural change in the variance of a time series, which amounts to a procedure with a controlled asymptotic size as we repeat the test. Our approach builds on that taken in Chu, Stinchcombe & White (1996) for structural change in the parameters of a linear regression model. We provide simulation evidence to examine the empirical siz...
متن کاملAnalyzing the Asymmetric Effect of Exchange Rate on Employment in Iran with Emphasis on Economic Sectors
Due to the structure of exchange rate regime in Iran and its dependence on oil revenues in recent decades, it is expected that exchange rate changes can be regarded as a consequence of major changes in oil price. In this regard, the exchange rate increases and decreases can influence the level of employment of firms by affecting the amount of their profitability, and of course, this kind of inf...
متن کاملMacroeconomic Shocks and Malaysian Tourism Industry: Evidence from a Structural VAR Model
Abstract his study employs a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model to investigate the macroeconomic shocks on Malaysian tourism industry, especially how the economy dynamically responds to oil price shocks, exchange rates, changes in price level, exports, economic growth and tourism income during the study time period from January 2001 to December 2012. The results indicate that oil...
متن کامل